Echoes of 2011: Why Curtis Sliwa Can Pull Off a Rep. Bob Turner-Style Upset in NYC’s Mayoral Race

In 2011, Republican businessman Bob Turner created a political earthquake that reshaped New York’s landscape. Turner shocked the nation by winning a special election in the heavily Democratic 9th Congressional District, defeating State Assemblyman David Weprin to replace disgraced Rep. Anthony Weiner, who resigned amid a sexting scandal.

The district, historically a Democratic bastion, had not seen a Republican elected in nearly nine decades. However, it flipped due to voter fury over economic woes, discontent with President Obama’s policies, and perceptions that Weprin was not sufficiently critical of the Democratic President’s approach to Israel, particularly regarding the proposal to use pre-1967 borders as a foundation for a future Palestinian state.

Turner’s victory wasn’t just an upset- it signaled shifting urban sentiments against entrenched Democratic complacency and boosted GOP morale heading into the 2012 elections. For full disclosure, after his victory, I had the privilege of serving as Turner’s District Chief of Staff throughout his tenure.

Fast forward to 2025, and a similar seismic shift is brewing in New York City’s mayoral race. Voter disillusionment with a Democratic Party increasingly dominated by socialists like nominee Zohran Mamdani mirrors the frustrations that propelled Turner.

Just as Weprin embodied out-of-touch liberalism, Mamdani’s democratic socialist agenda- echoing “defund the police” rhetoric and policies hostile to Israel- risks alienating moderates and independent voters amid continued concerns about crime and terrorist attacks against Israeli citizens. Republican Curtis Sliwa, founder of the Guardian Angels, is poised to capitalize on this, much like Turner did 14 years ago.

The parallels are striking. In 2011, Turner’s district was overwhelmingly blue, with Democrats outnumbering Republicans 3-to-1. Yet, vast dissatisfaction with Democrats created an opening for a pragmatic outsider.

Today, NYC’s voter registration tells a story of vulnerability. According to the latest figures, nearly 4.7 million active voters tilt heavily Democratic, with 3.1 million (66%) versus just 470,000 Republicans (10%). But these numbers hide a powder keg: Unaffiliated or independent voters now total over 991,000 (21.1%), surpassing Republicans as the second-largest bloc. Nearly half are under forty, a group fed up with partisan extremes, much like the swing voters who abandoned the Democrat in Turner’s race.

This unaffiliated voter boom isn’t random; it’s a national hemorrhage for Democrats, who have lost ground in every state tracking political party affiliations from 2020 to 2024, including New York. Nationally, Democrats are down 2.1 million registrations since 2020, while Republicans are up 2.4 million. In NYC, unaffiliated voter ranks swelled from 18% five years ago to 21.1% now, reflecting rejection of ideological rigidity. 

Sliwa is particularly well-positioned to connect with these independent voters. Between 2016 and 2018, he served as the leader of the NYS Reform Party, which aimed to amplify the voices of those voters who felt marginalized by the two dominant political parties.

Sliwa, like Turner, is the everyman alternative in a multi-candidate melee. The field is splintered with three registered Democrats. This division could let Sliwa win with a 32% – 35% plurality. 

In his 2021 mayoral bid, Sliwa captured 28% of the vote, a typical baseline for GOP candidates in the mayoral race. Given his significantly improved fundraising this year, it is reasonable to anticipate that Sliwa can attract an additional four to seven points from independents and disillusioned Democrats. Even though recent polls place Sliwa in a strong third position behind Mamdani’s lead, there’s plenty of reason for optimism for his campaign- voters are only now tuning into the race after a relaxing summer, making these early snapshots far from definitive. In fact, Sliwa’s first TV ad just hit the airwaves, poised to connect with massive audiences and drive shifts in momentum. With almost two months ahead, there’s ample time for changes in the polls. Remember, about six weeks before the Democratic primary, Mamdani was just a blimp on the radar.   

Mamdani’s primary upset was fueled by low voter turnout among Democrats. In the general election, with full voter participation, his extremism could backfire.

NYC’s stats chart Sliwa’s victory roadmap: Eroding Democratic dominance, a rise of independent voters, and issue-driven realignment. He can unify safety-first voters across divides. 

A victory for Sliwa would also invigorate Republican enthusiasm throughout New York, setting the stage for upstate Rep. Elise Stefanik’s expected gubernatorial campaign in 2026 against a vulnerable Democratic incumbent. This scenario is like the events of 1993, when Rudy Giuliani won the mayoralty and George Pataki secured the governorship the following year- both achievements considered improbable in a predominantly Democratic state. Their success was largely attributed to gaining the support of independents and moderate Democrats, who were motivated by concerns over crime, thus overcoming significant voter registration disparities.

Just as Bob Turner’s 2011 victory shattered Democratic dominance by channeling voter outrage into a pragmatic revolution, Curtis Sliwa can harness the growing tide of independents weary of crime and extremism. With a fractured field diluting the left and Sliwa’s proven record as a street-level guardian, the path to an underdog triumph is clear.

Capano has been an adjunct instructor in political science for more than twenty years and has held senior positions with both Republican and Democratic elected officials in New York.